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The best bets and resources to make you more profitable
Thanks to the rise in fantasy sports, and most notably daily fantasy sports, player props in general have grown immensely in popularity in the recent years. Part of this includes betting on NBA player props as well.
It makes sense, as more and more kids have grown up as fans of players as opposed to fans of teams or cities. So, if Joel Embiid is your favorite NBA player, how about betting on him to “blow up” and score 30+ points as opposed to just betting on the Sixers! With this rise in popularity, it is also important to understand how to, you know, make money betting on NBA player props as well.
I will detail two strategies, both of them profitable.
This doesn’t just apply to NBA player props, to confirm, but betting positive expected value is the easiest way to become a lucrative sports bettor, and of course that does include NBA player props as well.
The definition of positive expected value is betting on NBA player props that you know, as the sports bettor, have a higher win % than the implied odds of the sportsbook that you are placing the bet with.
I know that sounds like a mouthful, so let’s break it down using a real life example, and go from there.
As you can see in the screenshot, the play that is highlighted is betting on Luka Doncic to go over 52.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (PRA). This bet is at -105 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The OddsJam Perfect Line, which is pulled from the sharpest sportsbooks in the world, prices this at -107.32 (the odds to the right of the BetMGM icon).
So, essentially what this screenshot is telling you is that the “true line” of the market should be priced at -107.32, while we are getting it for a higher payout at BetMGM at -105. This is a profitable betting opportunity.
The nice thing about the OddsJam Positive Expected Value betting tool is that you can filter specifically for NBA player props, so the page itself is only showing you profitable NBA player props, and no other markets.
Another way I like to describe positive EV betting is like flipping a coin that is weighted 55% towards heads, but the person you are placing the bet with doesn’t know that, so is still giving you 50/50 odds. You have the advantage, knowing it is going to land on heads at a higher % than the odds you are getting.
Betting positive expected is a great way to become a profitable bettor on NBA player props, but it is not the only one.
The next way, which is just as profitable, is using the OddsJam Screen. It requires a little more digging, but it is a great tool. The way the OddsJam Screen works is you choose a specific market, and then the screen will show you where every single sportsbook is pricing that market.
This screenshot above shows you exactly how you can use the screen to find profitable NBA player props. The market is player points, and the player highlighted is Spencer Dinwiddie. As you can see in the screenshot, legitimately every single sportsbook except for one prices his point total at 15.5. The outlier here is BetRivers, which prices it at 14.5.
Another point (no pun intended) in our favor is that not only does every other book price this player prop above our bet at 14.5, but majority of sportsbooks also favor Dinwiddie going over 15.5 points. These sportsbooks price the over as the more expensive option, which is them telling us they think him going over is more likely.
This is why the screen is so valuable, because this player prop wouldn’t show up on the positive EV page, despite being a great play.
No matter how you spin it, OddsJam provides great tools to make money betting on your favorite NBA players. Questions? Reach out to us! We would love to hear from you [email protected]